Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) solid technical resistance at $15.31
May silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, last Friday’s bullish weekly high close is one clue that a market bottom is now in place.
Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $15.31 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.50. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $15.04 and then at $15.25. Next support is seen at $14.815 and then at last week’s low of $14.70.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.23.
The projected upper bound is: 15.27.
The projected lower bound is: 14.48.
The projected closing price is: 14.88.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
A dark cloud occurred (which indicates that prices moved up strongly on the previous bar, opened higher, but then closed significantly lower). This implies weakness as the momentum appears to be shifting from the bulls to the bears. Note that the lower the close of the black candle (relative to the white candle), the more bearish the dark cloud pattern.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAG=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.4995. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 61 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.166 at 14.894. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 51% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.068 15.068 14.840 14.894 11,070
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.95 15.27 14.96
Volatility: 12 16 18
Volume: 1,107 221 55
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 41 periods.