Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Slides as Mideast Tensions Fade
Silver prices continue to show volatility this week. On Wednesday, silver jumped as high as 18.86 after reports that Iran had launched missile attacks on two U.S. military bases in Iraq. Although the Iranians claimed that the attack killed 80 U.S. soldiers, the U.S. said that the attack had only caused limited casualties and damage. Investors were relieved, as the Iranian move appears to have been calculated to save face for domestic consumption, while at the same time ensuring that an unpredictable President Trump would not respond.
Indeed, Trump sounded surprisingly conciliatory in a White House announcement on Wednesday. Trump said that the Iranian attack had caused minimal damage and added that the United States is “ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.” With Trump appearing to stand down, relieved investors sent equities higher, while gold and silver recorded sharp losses.
ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Shine
There was excellent news from the employment sector on Wednesday, as ADP nonfarm payrolls was much higher than expected in December. The economy created 202 thousand jobs, crushing the estimate of 160 thousand. This marked the highest level since April. Will the good news extend to the official nonfarm payrolls? Analysts are expecting a drop to 150 thousand, down from 266 thousand a month earlier. Wage growth is expected to rise to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in November. If these releases are stronger than expected, investor risk appetite could rise and send silver prices to lower levels.
Silver Technical Analysis
Silver has pushed lower on Thursday, falling below the symbolic 18.00 level. Below, the 50-EMA line at 17.52, followed by a support level at 17.50. On the upside, the resistance line of 18.60 has some breathing room, as silver has lost ground. Above, there is resistance at 19.00, which last saw action in early September.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 17.54.
The projected upper bound is: 18.45.
The projected lower bound is: 17.33.
The projected closing price is: 17.89.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 37.5042. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.187 at 17.896. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 23% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
18.084 18.200 17.770 17.896 53,514
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 17.99 17.29 16.48
Volatility: 18 20 24
Volume: 5,351 1,070 268
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 8.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.
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