Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) sitting at the 50 day EMA

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) sitting at the 50 day EMA

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) sitting at the 50 day EMA

Silver market participants continue to be a bit stagnant during the trading session on Wednesday after the initial gapped lower. That being the case, the market looks likely to see a lot of noise in this area as we are simply sitting at the 50 day EMA. Granted, the gap lower was negative but at this point it does look like we are trying to form some type of stand. The market did fill the gap, and now the question is where we go next? It’s pretty simple for me though, if we can break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then I believe silver rally significantly and towards the $19.00 level. That being said, I think it’s only a matter of time before we get that, but if we do break down from here then I think the next major support level is somewhere around $17.50 below which has turned the market to the upside the last time we hit it.

Underneath that, then we have the 200 day EMA which is currently trading at the $17.09 level, which keeps the entire idea of an uptrend intact. One of the main things that is working against the silver market right now is the strength of the US dollar, but I think at this point it’s only a matter of time before we get more of a run towards precious metals as they are a huge safety commodity for most traders currently. The problem with silver though is the fact that it has a bit of an industrial component to it as well, so that may make it lag a bit it comes to its correlation gold.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 17.76.

The projected upper bound is: 18.64.

The projected lower bound is: 17.35.

The projected closing price is: 17.99.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 11 white candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.3492. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 35 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 0. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.014 at 17.972. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 17% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.980 18.202 17.760 17.972 38,921
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 18.11 17.85 16.99
Volatility: 27 23 25
Volume: 3,892 778 195

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAG= is currently 5.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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