Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Retracts, Falls Below 18.00
Silver has started the week with slight losses, erasing most of the gains seen on Friday. Currently, silver is trading at $17.95, down $0.14 or 0.81% on the day.
Silver Retracts, Falls Below 18.00
Last week’s dramatic events in the Middle East triggered sharp volatility in silver prices. On Wednesday, silver prices climbed 4.3 percent after Iran launched missile attacks on two U.S. military bases in Iraq. However, the Iranian attack appeared calculated to avoid U.S. casualties and caused minimal damage. Investors took this as a signal that Iran was ready to de-escalate the situation, after saving face with an attack against U.S. forces. Silver prices responded by falling back below the 18.00 level, which has psychological significance.
Silver Rises After U.S Job Numbers Slip
The U.S. labor market has been a key pillar in the strong U.S. economy, but December employment numbers, released on Friday, were a major disappointment. Nonfarm payrolls dropped sharply to 145 thousand, compared to 266 thousand a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 162 thousand. Wage growth fell by 0.1% to 2.9%, its lowest level since July 2018. Despite all the talk about a ‘tight’ labor market, weaker real wages will likely translate into reduced consumer spending, which could spell trouble for economic growth in 2020.
The weak numbers weighed on investor risk appetite and boosted silver on Friday, which crossed above the symbolic 18.00 level. However, silver was unable to consolidate these gains and finds itself again looking upwards towards the 18.00 line on Monday.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 17.55.
The projected upper bound is: 18.52.
The projected lower bound is: 17.41.
The projected closing price is: 17.96.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.0365. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 6. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.125 at 17.967. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
18.090 18.120 17.890 17.967 34,187
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 18.03 17.29 16.51
Volatility: 18 20 24
Volume: 3,419 684 171
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 8.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.
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