Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) pulls back in absence of near-term upside catalysts but the situation may change quickly

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) pulls back in absence of near-term upside catalysts but the situation may change quickly

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) pulls back in absence of near-term upside catalysts but the situation may change quickly

Silver Stays Below The Major Resistance Level At 50 EMA

Silver pulls back following an attempt to break through the major resistance level at the 50 EMA at $15.60.

There’s no material economic data scheduled to be released today so silver prices will find themselves in the hands of pure market sentiment.

The U.S. dollar, which serves as the safe haven asset of last resort during the current crisis, is flat against a broad basket of currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index stays below the 100 level, and the volatility is decreasing.

However, it remains to be seen whether the markets will stay calm as the U.S. enters the first week of the earnings season and economic data like U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims is set to be published later this week.

The economic data from the U.S. will likely set the tone for the world markets and impact investor mood in other asset classes.

As silver is getting closer to pre-crisis levels at $16.50, it needs stronger catalysts to maintain the upside trend. The massive stimulus measures that were announced all over the world should help the whole precious metal sector, but gold is the primary beneficiary of such moves.

Silver’s dependence on industrial demand remains its weak spot since industrial production will decline in 2020 due to coronavirus crisis. However, silver may gain ground on increased investment demand.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 16.69.

The projected lower bound is: 13.90.

The projected closing price is: 15.30.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.9221. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 97. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.107 at 15.343. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 61% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
15.336 15.518 15.300 15.343 5,136
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 14.95 15.97 17.01
Volatility: 33 61 38
Volume: 514 103 26

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAG= is currently 9.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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