Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) prices hit a nearly four-month high
Gold prices are moderately higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday. August gold futures are poised to close at a five-month high close today. Silver bulls are on a tear this week as prices hit a nearly four-month high. August gold futures were last up $3.80 an ounce at 1,427.00. September Comex silver prices were last up $0.194 at $16.17 an ounce.
September silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this year’s high of $16.47 an ounce.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $15.185. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $16.25 and then at $16.47. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $15.96 and then at $15.75.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.22.
The projected upper bound is: 16.76.
The projected lower bound is: 15.87.
The projected closing price is: 16.32.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.
A bearish harami occurred (where the current small black body is contained within an unusually large white body). During an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAG=) this pattern implies an end to the rally as the bulls appear to have exhausted themselves.
During a downtrend the bearish harami pattern is bullish as the bulls appear to be gaining strength as the bears weaken.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 96.1560. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 74.60. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 190.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.050 at 16.285. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 101% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
16.300 16.396 16.260 16.285 324
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.52 15.00 15.04
Volatility: 19 19 18
Volume: 32 6 2
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 8.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAG= is currently in an overbought condition.
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