Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) price forecast remains neutral
Silver prices have edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, silver is trading at $17.07, up 0.26% on the day.
Lukewarm Response to Trade Agreement
The announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and China is certainly significant, but the markets have been rather cautious in their response. The agreement is the first breakthrough in a bitter trade war that has lasted over two years and dampened global growth. The agreement is a welcome development, but is only a first step towards resolving the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
It was noteworthy that Chinese and U.S. representatives held separate press conferences on Friday. President Trump said that China would buy $50 billion worth of U.S. farm products, but no timeline or further details were provided. Indeed, the Chinese didn’t mention any specific targets at their press conference. Even with the agreement, the U.S. will continue to impose 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with a 7.5% tariff on another $120 billion of Chinese products. Still, there was some relief on the part of investors as another round of U.S. and Chinese tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on December 15th were suspended.
Manufacturing, Services PMIs Head Higher
The week started on a positive note in the U.S., as manufacturing and services PMIs accelerated in November. The manufacturing PMI improved to 52.5, up from 52.2 pts. This is the fourth month that the PMI has headed higher. On the services front, the PMI climbed to 52.2, up from 51.6 pts. Both indicators were within expectations and pointed to slight expansion.
Silver Technical Analysis
Silver continues to grind upwards and has recovered from the sharp losses seen in early December. The silver price forecast remains neutral. On the upside, the 50-EMA is at 17.14, just below resistance at 17.25. On the downside, we find immediate support at 16.95. This is followed by the 200-EMA, at 16.73. Below, there is support at 16.50, which has held since August. Note that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level follows immediately at 16.41. This means that there are significant support barriers below the 17.00 level.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 17.50.
The projected lower bound is: 16.45.
The projected closing price is: 16.97.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.8112. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 73 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.045 at 16.986. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 60% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
17.015 17.108 16.920 16.986 39,637
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 16.83 17.25 16.28
Volatility: 21 19 24
Volume: 3,964 793 198
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 4.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.
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