SILVER 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) No Reaction To FOMC Minutes
Gold prices are steady to slightly lower in early-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday, as the market paused and consolidated after the gains seen on Wednesday. February gold futures were last down $0.70 an ounce at $1,229.10. March Comex silver was down $0.075 at $14.38 an ounce.
Traders got an update on Federal Reserve policy discussion when the FOMC minutes were released this afternoon. The minutes said FOMC members were virtually unanimous that another U.S. interest rate rise soon is warranted. However, the minutes appeared to corroborate Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday, in which he seemed to dial down the prospects of a few more small interest rate increases in 2019. The metals markets and other markets did not show significant reactions to the FOMC minutes.
In a speech to the Economic Club of New York Wednesday, Powell’s dovish comments sparked rallies in the gold and silver markets. Powell said at present, U.S. interest rates are just below “neutral” levels and that the Fed will remain data dependent, with no set path on adjusting interest rates. Prior to Powell’s speech, the sense of the marketplace was that the Federal Reserve would continue on a gradual rate-hike course in 2019. The U.S. stock market rallied strongly on the news, while the U.S. dollar index sold off Wednesday.
The silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing March futures prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $15.055 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $14.545 and then at last week’s high of $14.66. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $14.185 and then at $14.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.73.
The projected upper bound is: 14.77.
The projected lower bound is: 13.85.
The projected closing price is: 14.31.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.7191. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 61 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 31. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.010 at 14.310. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.321 14.394 14.230 14.310 12,068
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.34 14.43 15.55
Volatility: 17 20 20
Volume: 1,207 241 60
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 7.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.
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