Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) next big economic data point is Friday’s U.S. jobs report
Traders and investors are still digesting the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC statement contained no monetary policy changes but the FOMC members said they will now be patient on future Fed rate hikes due to muted inflationary pressures and some concerns about global economic growth. The statement also suggested the Fed will not be in such a hurry to further reduce its balance sheet of U.S. securities. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at his press conference that “the case for raising U.S. interest rates has weakened somewhat.” While no change in monetary policy was expected, the FOMC statement was deemed fully dovish on U.S. monetary policy. The U.S. stock market rallied sharply, the U.S. dollar index sold off and gold prices also shot higher.
U.S. and China high-level trade officials are meeting in Washington, D.C, with today scheduled to conclude the meetings. There is no consensus at all on any progress that may or may not be made at this week’s talks. Markets will react to any significant announcements coming out of the meeting.
The next big economic data point is Friday’s U.S. jobs report for January from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 170,000 in the month. Wednesday’s U.S. ADP national employment report came in at up 213,000 in January. That was well above the average trade guess of up 183,000 and hints that the Friday non-farm jobs number could come in stronger than expected.
March silver futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. A 2.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.50. First resistance is seen at $16.25 and then at $16.50. Next support is seen at $15.825 and then at this week’s low of $15.61.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 16.44.
The projected lower bound is: 15.64.
The projected closing price is: 16.04.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.5467. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 167.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.051 at 16.010. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 5% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
16.062 16.185 15.960 16.010 10,772
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.59 15.07 15.25
Volatility: 21 17 19
Volume: 1,077 215 54
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 5.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 38 periods.
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