Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Markets Show Hesitation
Silver markets went back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to bounce around just below the $15.00 level. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of noise in this area, because it is such an important figure from a psychology standpoint. Furthermore, the market has also seen action here previously, so it looks very likely that the market is going to continue to see some type of reaction. The candlestick from the trading session shows a bit of hesitation, so therefore I think it’s only a matter of time before we rollover. That being said, there is also the possibility that we do shoot to the upside and continue going higher, and I think that would be confirmed on a move above the $15.25 level.
Above there, the market then goes looking towards the $16.00 level, which is a significant psychologically important level as well. But has the 50 day EMA approaching it to offer a bit of resistance as well. Because of this, I think it makes quite a bit of sense that we could see a significant amount of selling pressure. Alternately, if we simply break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday, then it’s very likely that the $14.00 level gets tested and then eventually the $13.00 level, which was the scene of the recent break out. Quite frankly, a pullback to that area does make quite a bit of sense as these types of meltdown markets quite often need to retest the lows again to find a longer-term bottom.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.64.
The projected upper bound is: 15.88.
The projected lower bound is: 13.12.
The projected closing price is: 14.50.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAG=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 91.1704. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.181 at 14.566. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 289% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.370 14.580 14.230 14.566 3,758
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.31 16.70 17.04
Volatility: 104 59 37
Volume: 376 75 19
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 14.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.