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Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) market showing the $12 level will be crucial

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) market showing the $12 level will be crucial

Silver markets went back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, showing the $12 level will be crucial, as it has been in the past. By bouncing around the way, it has, it suggests that the market is ready to give us some type of bounce. Quite frankly, the silver market has been decimated and although there is going to be a certain amount of industrial demand destruction, the reality is that silver also has a bit of a safety aspect to it, and we could see at the very least some type of relief rally.

If we can break above the $13 level, it’s likely that the market goes looking towards the $15 level next. That of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and it is an area where we had broken down from rather significantly. Above there, the next barrier is going to be the $16 level. I have no interest in trying to short this market anymore, I believe that an up value has entered. If the market breaks down below the Wednesday lows, then it’s likely that we go looking towards the $10 level where the next major support is. I do believe that silver is going to offer quite a bit of value for those who are patient enough, because quite frankly a lot of the precious metal selling has been due to forced liquidation to cover other positions that had lost so much money. With that in mind, I believe that starting to leg into a position might be the best way.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.79.

The projected upper bound is: 13.23.

The projected lower bound is: 10.76.

The projected closing price is: 12.00.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.3973. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 14.59. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 52 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -104.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.006 at 12.116. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 440% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
12.072 12.140 11.970 12.116 2,099
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 14.28 17.06 17.06
Volatility: 78 51 35
Volume: 210 42 10

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAG= is currently 29.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAG= is currently in an oversold condition.

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