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Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) lower highs and lower lows

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) lower highs and lower lows

Silver bounced off a six-month low at $14.38 earlier this week and pushed marginally higher but the move still looks weak as a new lower low and a lower high were put in place.

Silver continues to respect the downtrend and a re-test of this week’s low is possible if bearish momentum continues. Silver has also been respecting the 20-day moving average since late-March, while both the shorter-dated moving averages fell through the longer-dated (200-day) ma recently, adding to bearish sentiment. A break lower would target, $14.05, the November 30 low, psychological support at $14.00 before a full re-trace back to the November 14 low at $13.89.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.97.

The projected upper bound is: 14.89.

The projected lower bound is: 14.21.

The projected closing price is: 14.55.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A bearish harami occurred (where the current small black body is contained within an unusually large white body). During an uptrend this pattern implies an end to the rally as the bulls appear to have exhausted themselves.

During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAG=) the bearish harami pattern is bullish as the bulls appear to be gaining strength as the bears weaken.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 53.9860. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.025 at 14.560. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
14.570 14.608 14.490 14.560 0

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.58 14.96 14.90
Volatility: 14 14 18
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAG= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 60 periods.

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