Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) looks like it’s in serious trouble and is going to be approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Silver markets initially tried to rally during the week, reaching towards the bottom of the weekly trend line that had previously been holding this market up. At this point, the market has seen enough exhaustion to turn things around and breakdown rather significantly. This is a huge “risk on moving quote, which has been exacerbated by a little bit of trade optimism along with a blowout jobs figure on Friday.
Quite frankly, silver looks like it’s in serious trouble and is going to be approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level rather soon. If it breaks down below there, this thing could unravel rather quickly. The trend line has been broken and that in and of itself is not a good look. This is especially true consider it has been retested.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 17.14.
The projected lower bound is: 15.94.
The projected closing price is: 16.54.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAG=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.5495. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 66 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -234.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.388 at 16.560. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 67% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
16.950 16.986 16.500 16.560 0
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 16.92 17.33 16.22
Volatility: 23 22 24
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.