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Saturday, October 16, 2021

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Investors Await U.S. Manufacturing PMI

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Investors Await U.S. Manufacturing PMI

The key event on Friday is the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which should be treated as a market-mover. The index has been hovering close to the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion. In September, the index rose to 51.5 pts, marking a 6-month high. Still, this points to stagnation in manufacturing, which has been dampened by the ongoing trade war with China and weak global economic conditions.  The PMI is expected to remain at 51.5 pts in the upcoming release.

Buyers of silver and other precious metals continue to sit on the sidelines, as there have not been any major geopolitical or macroeconomic developments this week. Will this lack of movement continue? Investors are keeping an eye on the U.S-China trade talks, which have been up-and down. Any announcements about how the talks are progressing could have a significant impact on risk appetite and silver prices.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver continues to drift this week, as the metal has been unable to pull away from the 17.00 level. However, the lack of a trend for over a week could signal that silver is due for a breakout in the near future. Note that silver remains sandwiched between the 50-EMA and 200-EMA lines.

There is immediate resistance at 17.25, but silver is showing little appetite in testing this line. Close by, the 50-EMA line is at 17.41, which could serve as short-term resistance. Above, we find resistance at 17.75.

On the downside, the 200-EMA is providing support at 16.59. Close by, there is support at the round number of 16.00. The silver price forecast remains neutral.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 17.26.

The projected upper bound is: 17.71.

The projected lower bound is: 16.28.

The projected closing price is: 17.00.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.1897. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.03. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 56 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -4. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.093 at 17.004. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 3% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.097 17.231 16.960 17.004 0
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 16.99 17.55 16.16
Volatility: 10 26 24
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 5.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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