Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) higher on some safe-haven demand amid reports the world’s two largest economies are not close to a trade deal
Safe-haven gold and silver prices are moderately up in early U.S. trading Thursday, on some safe-haven demand amid reports the world’s two largest economies are not close to a trade deal. A wobbly U.S. dollar index recently is also working in favor of the precious metals market bulls. December gold futures were last up $11.80 an ounce at 1,508.20. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.168 at $18.035 an ounce.
Risk appetite has been dented Thursday on reports the U.S.-China trade talks have taken a step backwards. This should not really be a surprise to anybody. Over the past many months traders and investors have been on a rollercoaster ride regarding progress or lack thereof in the trade negotiations between the two largest economies in the world. The latest reports are coming out of China, whereby Chinese officials Thursday expressed doubts about a complete trade deal with the U.S. ever being completed.
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.
In other overnight news, the Euro zone reported its third-quarter GDP at up a paltry 0.2% from the second quarter and up 1.1%, year-on-year.
Meantime, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was reported at 49.3 in October versus 49.8 in September and a forecast of 49.8. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.
Hong Kong’s third-quarter GDP was reported down 2.9%, year-on-year, amid that city-state’s ongoing civil unrest.
The world marketplace is today digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC decision to lower U.S. interest rates by 0.25%. That move was expected, but market watchers deemed the wording of the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference as suggesting the Fed is now on hold for further interest rate reductions.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices weaker in early U.S. trading today and trading around $54.75 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the employment cost index, personal income and outlays, and the ISM-Chicago business survey.
December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained some momentum late this week. Prices have been trending higher for four weeks.
Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $18.35 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $17.44. First resistance is seen at $18.25 and then at $18.35. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $17.795 and then at this week’s low of $17.59.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 19.07.
The projected lower bound is: 17.16.
The projected closing price is: 18.12.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.0038. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 40 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 133.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.235 at 18.095. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
17.875 18.170 17.760 18.095 54,586
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 17.76 17.88 16.05
Volatility: 14 33 23
Volume: 5,459 1,092 273
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 12.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.