Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) gains as geopolitical worries resurface

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) gains as geopolitical worries resurface

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) gains as geopolitical worries resurface

Gold and silver prices are moderately higher in midday U.S. trading Monday, on some safe-haven demand as trader and investor risk aversion is a bit keener to start the trading week. December gold futures were last up $7.10 an ounce at 1,495.80. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.116 at $17.66 an ounce.

The shine of last Friday afternoon’s U.S.-China “Phase 1” trade agreement has quickly worn off. After having the weekend to ponder the matter traders and investors now reckon the agreement is fraught with potholes that are likely derail it. There are now reports China wants more talks before even signing the Phase 1 agreement. “The devil is in the details,” as the saying goes.

Also, the optimism expressed late last week regarding a U.K.-European Union agreement on Brexit has dimmed.

There was more dour economic news coming out of China to start the trading week. China’s exports to the U.S. dropped 22% in September, year-on-year. China’s total exports fell 3.2% in the month. China’s total imports in September were down 8.5%.

All of the above are producing some new safe-haven demand for the gold and silver markets.

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $53.00 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index moderately up in midday U.S. trading.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 18.65.

The projected lower bound is: 16.67.

The projected closing price is: 17.66.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 44.0212. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.48. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 5. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.099 at 17.639. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 10% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.550 17.700 17.390 17.639 43,769
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.54 17.70 15.91
Volatility: 18 35 23
Volume: 4,377 875 219

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 10.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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