SILVER 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Forecast to 17.16
Silver markets broke out to the upside, breaking above the top of the short term consolidation area that we have been in for a while, and now we have formed a bit of a “W pattern”, and that of course is a very bullish sign. I think at this point, we are likely to go towards the $17 level above, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number. I think that short-term pullbacks can find buyers near the $16.50 level, and I think that the market should continue to be very noisy, as is typical of silver. However, I don’t know that we could go much higher, as we have seen so much in the way of resistance. I think that short-term pullbacks continue to offer value, and I continue to build a larger position for the longer-term move.
The $20 level above will be a massive resistance barrier to overcome, and I think that there will be several attempts to reach that level, and I think short-term pullbacks continue to be where we can buy silver “on the cheap.” I think that building up a larger position for a retirement investment is a wise choice, but if you are short-term trader I think at this point you need to start looking at the possibility that we are a bit overbought, and perhaps a pullback is imminent. This is why I have a Bollinger Band indicator drawn on this chart, as it shows that we are overbought to say the least.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 17.16.
The projected lower bound is: 16.18.
The projected closing price is: 16.67.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.4817. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 124 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 198.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.021 at 16.662. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
16.641 16.900 16.600 16.662 0
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 16.47 16.51 16.75
Volatility: 12 19 20
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.
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