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Monday, September 20, 2021

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Eye Bull Flag Continuation Effort

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Eye Bull Flag Continuation Effort

The start of October and Q4’19 has been kind to precious metals. After gold and silver prices came under sharp pressure as both September and Q3’19 came to a close, the redeployment of capital in an environment that has turned dark rather quickly has been favorably for precious metals.

Rising concerns around global growth thanks to terribly disappointing September PMIs, signs that the US-China trade war is set escalate again, and fears that the UK may end up with a no-deal, hard Brexit are proving to weigh heavily on risk appetite. If the current sentiment takes root, silver prices may stand to benefit in the coming sessions.

Like gold prices, silver prices may not be topping out but rather trading in the confines of a bull flag – a continuation pattern that calls for a resumption of the broader uptrend. The scope of the silver price bull flag is more acute, given the sharp decline from the swing highs in early- and late-September. Nevertheless, despite breaking the uptrend that defined priced action since July, there still remains potential for a turn higher.

For now, silver prices remain below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope. Daily MACD continues to trend lower, on the verge of breaking into bearish territory. Slow Stochastics is attempting to climb out of oversold territory. If this is indeed a bull flag in silver prices, a return above 18.194 would be a confirmation signal that more gains are ahead. Until then, caution is warranted.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 18.61.

The projected lower bound is: 16.62.

The projected closing price is: 17.62.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 44.9670. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.038 at 17.593. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 3% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.573 17.785 17.440 17.593 31,477
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.78 17.53 15.84
Volatility: 41 35 23
Volume: 3,148 630 157

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 11.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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