Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) awaiting a new fundamental spark to drive market direction

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) awaiting a new fundamental spark to drive market direction

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) awaiting a new fundamental spark to drive market direction

Gold and silver prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading Thursday. The metals have been trading sideways in quieter fashion for several sessions, awaiting a new fundamental spark to drive market direction. While this week’s uptick in trader and investor risk appetite has limited buying interest in safe-haven gold and silver, their bullish near-term technical chart postures have limited selling interest. February gold futures were last down $1.40 an ounce at $1,292.50. March Comex silver was down $0.083 at $15.555 an ounce.

European and Asian stock markets were mostly lower overnight. Traders and investors are now lamenting reports out this week that the U.S. and China trade talks may not be going as well as many thought just last week. Adding to the murkiness is reports that U.S. federal prosecutors will file criminal charges of theft of intellectual property against the big Chinese technology firm Huawei. The lingering government shutdown may also be negatively impacting the U.S. equities. The added uncertainty of limited, fresh U.S. economic data is an underlying negative for many markets and maybe also for some big companies.

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $15.735 and then at $15.83. Next support is seen at $15.50 and then at $15.385.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.12.

The projected upper bound is: 15.94.

The projected lower bound is: 15.15.

The projected closing price is: 15.54.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.0263. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.064 at 15.525. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 60% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
15.589 15.616 15.410 15.525 0

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.62 14.80 15.31
Volatility: 9 17 20
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 1.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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