Shanghai: SSE Composite Index (.SSEC) rebound from trade fears
Global stock markets rose Thursday following Wall Street’s decline amid U.S.-Chinese trade tensions and oil prices recovered some of the previous day’s steep losses.
In early trading, London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.4 percent to 7,625.79 and Germany’s DAX added 0.2 percent to 12,448.09. France’s CAC 40 gained 0.2 percent to 5,366.25. On Wednesday, the CAC 40 and DAX both lost 1.5 percent while the FTSE 100 was off 1.3 percent. On Wall Street, futures for the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 index both were up 0.4 percent.
ASIA’S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.2 percent to 2,837.66 and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.2 percent to 22,187.96. India’s Sensex climbed 1 percent to 36,615.08 and Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 advanced 0.9 percent to 6,268.30. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.7 percent to 28,517.61 and Seoul’s Kospi added 0.2 percent to 2,285.06. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Southeast Asia also advanced, while New Zealand declined.
TRADE TENSION: China’s government said it will take “firm and forceful measures” if the Trump administration goes ahead with its threat of tariff hikes on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods. President Donald Trump has threatened to raise duties on almost everything Americans buy from China. Beijing is running out of American goods for retaliatory tariffs due to its lopsided trade balance, which means it might impose other measures.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 2,994.94.
The projected upper bound is: 2,938.26.
The projected lower bound is: 2,727.32.
The projected closing price is: 2,832.79.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with SSE COMPOSITE). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.4234. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
SSE COMPOSITE closed up 59.888 at 2,837.659. Volume was 2% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 33% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 2,790.83 3,015.56 3,242.85
Volatility: 31 23 18
Volume: 13,064,012,800 13,299,627,008 16,317,604,864
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
SSE COMPOSITE is currently 12.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of .SSEC (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .SSEC and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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