Savvy economists say there is evidence the world economy has begun to recover from the C-19 coronavirus chaos, and the Draconian restrictions placed on businesses and consumers.
“Economic activity has probably bottomed now,” said the chief economist at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) in a note to clients Monday. “Lockdowns and social distancing are starting to diminish as many countries are cautiously reopening their economies.”
Goldman Sachs predicted advanced economies will contract an average 32% in this Quarter before growing 16% in Q-3 and 13% in Q-4 of this year.
At Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), the chief economist said in a report on Sunday that “a number of the high-frequency indicators we track suggest that the global economy is in the process of bottoming out.”
Consumers’ expectations have improved, mobility trends have risen from their troughs and household spending is contracting more slowly than in the early wks of the outbreak, he noted.
Our read here from chief economist Shayne Heffernan, PhD is that: “China’s economy bottomed in February, and the Euroarea likely troughed in April with the US following on in late April.“
In a separate note released Monday to clients, HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE:HSBC)economist warned against betting on a “sharp turnaround in the global economy.” He cited numbers from China suggesting consumer spending may be slow to bounce back as people may remain nervous about shopping or returning to work.
As governments ease back on C-19 coronavirus restrictions, another threat could be a 2nd wave of virus chaos, further disrupting activity but not likely from where I sit.
Monday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA +26.07 at 23749.76, NAS Comp +105.77 at 8710.73, S&P 500 +12.03 at 2842.74
Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 969-M/shares exchanged
- NAS Comp -2.9% YTD
- S&P 500 -12.0% YTD
- DJIA -16.8% YTD
- Russell 2000 -24.2% YTD
HeffX-LTN’s overall technical outlook for the major US stock market indexes is Neutral with a Bullish/Very Bullish bias.
Looking Ahead: Investors will receive the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April and the Trade Balance report for March Tuesday.
Have a healthy day, Keep the Faith