The Recovery in Home Prices Bolsters Americans’ Household Wealth

The Recovery in Home Prices Bolsters Americans’ Household Wealth

The Recovery in Home Prices Bolsters Americans’ Household Wealth

US home prices have fully recovered from their steep plunge during the housing bust and Great Recession, according to the data

The Standard & Poor’s CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index , released Tuesday, is just a bit above the peak it set in July 2006, after rising 5.5% in September from a year earlier. The milestone comes after more than 4 years of steady gains.

Still, prices have not fully recovered in many cities and other gauges show that home prices remain below their peaks.

Steady job gains and low mortgage rates have encouraged more Americans to buy homes. Yet the supply of available properties has dwindled, setting off bidding wars and pushing up prices at a rapid pace.

Seattle, Portland and Denver reported the largest annual gains in September for the 8th straight month.

“The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic national index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance,” the managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said.

The ongoing recovery in home prices shores up Americans’ household wealth and should provide more homeowners the incentive to sell. The number of homes for sale is low partly because many families have little equity in their homes and would benefit little from a sale.

Rising home values help counter that trend.

Yet many cities remain far below their pre-recession peaks, he said, including those that have seen large gains since the downturn, such as Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.

Some analysts caution that imbalances remain in the housing market.

 

Since the real estate market began recovering in Y 2012, prices have grown much faster than Americans’ incomes. That has made it difficult for many would-be buyers, particularly younger Americans, to take advantage of low mortgage rates.

Home prices have increased at a 5.9% annual rate, adjusted for inflation, S&P says. Yet Americans’ after-tax incomes have increased just 1.3% during that time.

 

Mortgage rates have risen about a half-percentage point since the Presidential election, to nearly 4%. That is still very low by historical standards, but could slow home sales in the coming months.

According to the S&P Case Shiller national home price index, home prices plummeted 27.4% from a peak reached in July 2006 through February 2012. They have since recovered that loss and are now 0.1% above the previous highs.

S&P Case-Shiller issues several home price measures, including a composite index of 20 large cities. That measure remains 7% below its housing bubble peak.

Most other measures of the housing market point to a solid recovery.

Sales of existing homes rose to the fastest pace in nearly a decade in October. And developers broke ground on the most new homes in nine years last month. Sales of new homes slowed in October from the previous month, but are up a solid 12.7% in the 1st 10 months of this year compared to the same frame of Y 2015.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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