The silver lining following the C-19 coronavirus chaos is that there is nowhere to go but up for the US economy.
President Trump and the economists aligned with his Administration, who expect the easing of economic restrictions to unleash pent-up demand.
“I think the 3rd quarter is going to be a huge growth quarter, we agree with the Congressional Budget Office, and the 4th quarter, the whole 2nd half, we’re going to see a tremendous rebound, going to spill over into 2021,” Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told reporters outside the White House Tuesday. He later added, “We got 50 states in different phases of reopening, and that’s a plus.”
President Trump has repeatedly made the case that Q-3, for which preliminary numbers will be known on Election Day, will mark a “transition” between the current economic ‘irons’ and a period of renewed jobs and growth. “As I said, and I’ll say it 100 times, we’re going to have an incredible year next year, right at the beginning,” President Trump told Ford workers in the Key battleground state of Michigan. “Even our 4th quarter is going to be very good. There’s a tremendous pent-up demand, and that includes for your cars.”
“Yes, unemployment will be something that moves back slower. I think it could be better than that. But you’re going to be starting at a number in the 20s and working your way down,” White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told State of the Union, conceding double-digit unemployment could still be with us as the election approaches. “So, of course, you could still not be back to full employment by September or October.”
But even if the bottom-line numbers remain objectively bad, especially when compared to earlier in The Trump Administration, the rebound from such an artificially low base could produce glowing growth statistics.
We could have 2-M jobs created a month in the 4 reports before November, and then toward the end of October, we will get GDP growth for Q-3 at an annualized rate, and it could be double-digit positive economic growth. So these will be the best jobs and growth numbers in history.
Asked Tuesday about the recent stock market rally, Mr. Kudlow replied “They are reading this story on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, but there have been a number of these stories — I saw one in Politico where a good friend of mine from the other side agrees with us and the CBO — of a very strong third quarter and second half rebound,” he said.
The Trump Campaign has pivoted back to “Make America Great Again.”
Trump is not among the doubters. “You are going to see it more and more,” he said of improving economic indicators at a White House event Tuesday. “We call it the ‘transition to greatness,’ and it really is.”
Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!