Parliament Rejects UK Leaving EU with No-Deal BREXIT

Parliament Rejects UK Leaving EU with No-Deal BREXIT

Wednesday, UK lawmakers rejected leaving the EU without a deal, paving the way for a vote to delay BREXIT to seek a way out of Britain’s worst political crisis in generations.

Lawmakers voted by 312 to 308 in favor of a cross-party motion that ruled out a potentially disorderly ‘no-deal’ BREXIT under any circumstances.

After 2.5 years of negotiations and 2 failed attempts to pass a BREXIT deal proposed by Mrs. May, the vote against a no-deal exit still leaves undecided how, when and on what terms Britain will leave the single currency bloc it joined in Y 1973.

After lawmakers crushed her deal for a 2nd time running Tuesday, Mrs. May said it was still the best option for leaving in an orderly fashion.

Ahead of Wednesday’s vote, Sterling headed for its biggest daily rise in Y 2019 as investors bet on a vote against a no-deal BREXIT. GBP rose again on the result of the vote.

As the United Kingdom’s 3-year Brexit crisis spins towards its finale, diplomats and investors see 4 options: a delay, Mrs. May’s deal passing at the last minute, an accidental no-deal exit or another referendum.

If Britain does seek a delay, it will require the agreement of all the bloc’s other 27 members.

The EU would prefer only a short extension, with the deadline of EU-wide parliamentary elections due 24-26 May, it is unclear that this would be long enough to solve the impasse in London.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the bloc would need to know why Britain wanted to extend talks and that it was up to London to find a way out of the deadlock. The EU said there could be no more negotiations on the divorce terms.

As Brexit uncertainty spills into financial markets across the world, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering different probabilities on the outcomes.

“We continue to see a 55% chance that a close variant of the Prime Minister’s BREXIT deal is eventually ratified, after a 3-month extension of Article 50,” Goldman said. It gave a reversal of BREXIT a 35% probability and a no-deal BREXIT 10%.

Britons voted by 52-48% in 2016 to leave the EU, a decision that has split the main political parties and exposed deep rifts in British society.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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