Overly Confident Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Investors Completely Miss Bitcoin Price Target

Overly Confident Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Investors Completely Miss Bitcoin Price Target

Overly Confident Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Investors Completely Miss Bitcoin Price Target

As Bitcoin price inches closer to $10,000, the market is still showing signs of disbelief due to the speed and power at which Bitcoin rose out of the depths of the bear market. No one expected the crypto asset to spike so strongly following the longest bear market on record.

The price targets thrown around by crypto investors around the time the bottom was put in – around mid-December – clearly display just how unpredictable the crypto market is, as no one at all was calling for Bitcoin to breach $6,000 and so quickly be knocking at $10,000’s door.

Overly Confident Crypto Investors Completely Miss Bitcoin Price Target

Financial market cycles all play out the same way, and despite it being an emerging asset like no other, Bitcoin has been no different and has demonstrated the same peaks and troughs of investors sentiment. Bitcoin price rose substantially in 2017, forming a “bubble” peak that popped, causing an 85% decline following the break of the crypto’s parabolic advance, and the longest bear market on record ensued.

During this time, irrational exuberance, euphoria, and hype quickly turned into anxiety, denial, and soon, panic, as the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plummeted faster than they rose in the first place. As the market bottomed, anger, depression, and fear are emotions that are at their highest, causing investors to be reluctant to buy at prices that would otherwise be viewed as ideal entry points. This fear-filled sentiment clouded the judgement of many, as can be seen in volume profiles during that price action.

Also around that time, recently capitulated crypto investors began targeting far below the Bitcoin bottom of $3,150 and had been looking for prices in the $2,000 range, with some calling for $1,000 or lower.

One person called for “triple digits” for the rest of the year and not until 2020 when Bitcoin would break back into four digits. Instead the cryptocurrency is already targeting five digits with a decisive break of $10,000 not out of the realm of possibility.

Collectively, most investors didn’t see Bitcoin breaking above $6,000 anytime soon, and certainly no calls for $8,000 or above. Most assumed Bitcoin wouldn’t start a new bull market for at least another year. The entire rally has shocked investors across the board, suggesting that the crypto market is just edging its way out of the disbelief phase.

What comes after disbelief is new hope, followed by optimism. After that the bull market will help guide the price of cryptocurrencies high once again, and the cycle will reach full-blown euphoria once again.

Much like overly bearish price targets were actually a signal to buy, once euphoria sets in, and investors begin talking about million dollar BTC, it might be a signal that the top is in, and it’s time to repeat the entire cycle all over again.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 9,309.91.

The projected lower bound is: 7,754.27.

The projected closing price is: 8,532.09.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.7103. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 134.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -213.660 at 8,467.170. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 75% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
8,686.3208,756.9008,437.4008,467.170 30,296

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,184.16 6,344.38 4,553.19
Volatility: 61 70 76
Volume: 90,196 80,538 78,623

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 86.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.

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