Oil Price Outlook

Oil Price Outlook

World oil demand growth in 2017 is expected to rise by 1.42 mb/d after an upward revision of around 50 tb/d,according to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR.

Crude inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 8 to 468.8 million, nearly double analysts’ expectations of an increase of 3.2 million barrels.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports on stockpiles and refinery runs later on Wednesday.

The EIA also said on Tuesday it had revised both its 2017 and 2018 oil production forecast figures lower to reflect, in part, the effects of Hurricane Harvey.

The largest refinery in the United States, in Port Arthur Texas, was running at reduced rates, sources told Reuters.

”The adjustment mainly reflects better-than-expected data from OECD region for the 2Q17, particularly OECD Americans and Europe, as well as China. In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.35 mb/d, an increase of 70 tb/d from the previous report. This reflects higher growth expectations for OECD Europe and China,” said the report for August.

”Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.78 mb/d in 2017, unchanged from the last month due to offsetting revisions in Kazakhstan and US supply. In 2018, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d, following a downward revision to Russia and Kazakhstan, totalling 0.1 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.49 mb/d in 2018, representing an increase of 0.18 mb/d, broadly in line with growth in the current year. In August, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 79 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.76 mb/d,” the report stated.

Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, it said, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.7 mb/d, around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, about 0.2 mb/d higher than in 2017.

Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday, dampened by reports of rising U.S. crude stockpiles but retaining some of the gains made in the previous session after OPEC said it expected higher demand for its crude next year.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 was unchanged at $48.23 a barrel at around 0359 GMT after rising earlier in the day. The contract rose 0.3 percent on Tuesday.

International benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $54.14 a barrel, having settled up 0.8 percent in the previous session.

The difference between Brent and WTI, known as the spread, rose by 11 cents to $5.41 in the favour of the global benchmark, as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma continued to impact demand for both crude and oil products in the U.S.

 

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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