NY Fed Factory Index at 3-Year Lows

NY Fed Factory Index at 3-Year Lows

This looks terrible, but it will not last

A Fed gauge of factories in New York state plunged in June by the most on record, adding to signs tariffs are weighing on manufacturers and the broader economy.

The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s main index fell by 26.4 points to minus 8.6, the lowest level since October 2016 and indicating more respondents said business conditions had worsened rather than improved.

Almost all of the sub-indexes dropped, led by declines in new orders and unfilled orders. A survey of economists had forecast the measure would drop to 11 from 17.8.

The surprising weakness may spur more calls for Fed policy makers to lower benchmark interest rates at coming meetings, though economists do not expect any move when officials gather this week in Washington. The index drop follows increased levies on Chinese products along with President Trump’s threats to place tariffs on all Mexican goods.

New orders fell to a 3-year low, while unfilled orders dropped to the lowest level since Y 2015. The employment index posted its 1st negative reading in 2 years, suggesting a pullback in the number of workers, while the average workweek shortened. The 6-month outlook also deteriorated, but still remains about in line with its average in recent months.

This awful reading likely reflects the peak of Mexico tariff fear, which coincided with the survey response period.

The Empire State manufacturing index is the first of a series of regional Fed surveys due for release in the next 2 weeks, with economists projecting a decline in the Philadelphia Fed’s measure Thursday. The regional gauges have generally been trending downward in the past year.

Surveys are sent out to about 200 manufacturing executives in New York state on the first of every month. Most responses are received by the 10th of each month, but responses are accepted until the 15th, according to the New York Fed.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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