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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
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Now Mr. Biden says, “Inflation is the Top Priority for Me”, Market Continues to Consolidate for the Next Leg Up

#CPI #inflation #stocks #economy #Biden #Manchin #crptocurrencies

$SPY $QQQ $RUT $DIA $PUBM $VXX $BTCUSD $ETHUSD $GBITS

We are seeing strong demand for cryptocurrencies and stocks in here“– Paul Ebeling

DJIA -240.04 to 36079.94, NAS Comp -263.84 to 15622.70, S&P 500-38.54 to 4646.71

The S&P 500 fell 0.8% Wednesday, the NAS comp (-1.7%), the Russell 2000 (-1.6%) declined more than 1.5%, and the DJIA fell 0.7%. 

  • S&P 500 +23.7% YTD
  • NAS Comp +21.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +21.0% YTD
  • DJIA +17.9% YTD

Wednesday’s US economic data

  • Total CPI jumped 0.9% month-over-month in October and was up 6.2% year-over-year. That was the largest 12-month increase since November 1990.
  •  Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.6% month-over-month, and was up 4.6% year-over-year, which the BLS said was the largest 12-month increase since August 1991.
    • The Key takeaway from the report, aside from the roughly 30-year highs in total CPI and core CPI is the acknowledgment that most component indexes increased over the month, which reflects a broadening of the inflation pressures.
  • Total jobless claims for the week ending November 6 decreased by 4,000 to 267,000, which is the lowest since 14 March 2020. Continuing claims for the week ending 30 October increased by 59,000 to 2.160-M.
    • The Key takeaway from this report is the ongoing improvement in initial claims, which matches the corporate narrative that it has been difficult to find workers in a strong demand environment.
  • The Treasury Budget saw a $165.1-B deficit in October, Vs a $284.1-B deficit in the same frame a year ago. The budget data is not seasonally adjusted
    • October, which marks the start of the new Fiscal Year for the government, marked the 25th month running that the Treasury has seen a budget deficit. The budget deficit over the last 12 months is $2.65-T Vs deficit of $2.77-T in September.
  • Wholesale inventories increased 1.4% m/m in September following a 1.2% increase in the prior week.
  • Weekly Crude Oil inventories increased by 1.00-M bbls after increasing by 3.29-M bbls during the prior week.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.5% following a 3.3% declineer in the prior week.

Looking Ahead: There is no economic data scheduled Thursday. As a reminder, the Treasury market will be closed Thursday for Veterans Day.

Memes Report

Wednesday’s winner by a wide margin was PubMatic Inc. (NASDAQ:PUBM). The cloud-based ad platform traded up by as much as a third on the day and was last seen more than 20% higher on much greater than average volume. Two brokerages recently raised their opinion of PubMatic. Raymond James raised its price target from $43 to $50 and maintained its Outperform rating. RBC Capital maintained its Outperform rating and raised its $43 price target to $56. The firm noted that in its Q-3 earnings report, “PubMatic delivered an inflection type quarter as top-line outperformance again flowed through to strong profitability.” Price: 35.03+2.92 (+9.09%) at close: 4p ET and 36.38 +1.35 (+3.85%)
After hours: 07:59p ET

On the Crypto front

The price of bitcoin (BTCUSD) has increased by nearly $3,000, hitting a new record high of $68,950, since the Labor Department’s CPI report was released at 13:30 UTC (8:30a ET).

Bitcoin’s uptrend continues with prices rising over 10% this month, extending October’s 40% gainer and setting a new record high of over $68,000.

While the coin stash of small bitcoin addresses continues to rise, the combined balance of addresses holding 100 to 10,000 BTC has dropped by 60,000 BTC in the past 7-days, diverging from bitcoin’s continued price rally.

Balance held by addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC has increased.

Activity in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)-listed bitcoin futures contracts has cooled, diverging from a continued rally in bitcoin and signaling decreased institutional participation.

The amount of money locked in bitcoin futures contracts listed on the CME has dropped to $4.6-B, marking a 22% drawdown from the 25 October high of $5.5-B.

GBITS continued to rally and tapped $400 intraday,

Note: NFTs are the ‘holy grail for humans‘ that will be used for everything!

Politics

Mr. Biden says he is prepared to go to battle with inflation, as government data confirms a pace of price increases not seen in decades.

Poll: Nearly half of voters say Biden worse president than expected, most don’t want to see him run again. And the Dems want him gone.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday morning that prices rose 6.2% on a Y-Y basis in October. A pace that has has not been recorded on the Consumer Price Index since December 1990.

Policymakers at the Fed brushed off higher inflationary prints as “transitory.” Seems it is not.

Do not be fooled, Mr. Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB)plan will continue to drive inflation higher as M2 will continue to expand, no matter what the political spin.

US Senator Joseph Manchin (D-VA) says, “By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the American people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse.

“From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.

Our sources tell us inflation woes might keep Senator Manchin from giving his vote on the Biden BBB bill until next year.

Have a prosperous day, Keep the Faith!

Paul Ebeling
Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.   

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