No Bear Market or Recession Seen Until at Least 2019

No Bear Market or Recession Seen Until at Least 2019

No Bear Market or Recession Seen Until at Least 2019


Savvy investors are being urges to ignore any pundits’ Doom-and-Gloom predictions, as the indicators say, “clear sailing for the next year or so”.

“My belief is that we’re not going to see a bear market or a recession until at least 2019,” the Vice Chairman of Blackstone’s (NYSE:BX) private-wealth-solutions group Byron Wien says.

“In my opinion, we have a couple more years before the next bear market sets in, and earnings are coming through at double the rate they were projected to at the beginning of the year,” he said.

“So this is an earnings-driven market, and the stocks with the most impressive earnings performance are the ones that are doing well,” he said.

He did, however, sound a note of caution.

The Fed will ceased its asset purchases and, starting next month, that will start slowly shrinking its balance sheet.

Mr. Wien warned his clients that move will push the again Bull market rally into “uncharted territory.”

“The combination of Fed policy, the yield curve, and leading indicators are 3 important things to watch out for,” he said.

At the end of the last century, the Fed was worried about inflation picking up. They tightened even though inflation was not picking up. That contributed to the Bear market we had in Y’s 2000/2001.

The market was vulnerable on its own because of valuations. And the combination of excessive valuation and the Fed tightening really created the bear market that we experienced in Y 2000.

Mr. Wien does not expect them to do that again. They know that a lot of the good times we’re enjoying are in their hands, and I don’t think they want to do anything to destroy that,” he said.

To be sure, it seems most days that the stock market soars to yet another record high, ignorning most news headlines.

What we hear is that people are concerned about missing out as the market continues to rally. They think maybe they need to jump in. The behavior of the retail investor is more important than ever now.

US stocks have surged this year, despite all of the Noise from Washington to Pyongyang and many points in between.

Friday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -9.64 at 22349.59, NAS Comp +4.23 at 6426.92, S&P 500 +1.62at 2502.22

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in light to moderate at: 722.1-M/shares exchanged.

  • NAS Comp +19.4% YTD
  • DJIA +13.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +11.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +6.9% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA; Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.34) Neutral (0.24) Bullish (0.33) Bullish (0.46)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.38) Bullish (0.46) Bullish (0.33) Bullish (0.33)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.27) Bullish (0.26) Neutral (0.02) Very Bullish (0.53)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.42) Bearish (-0.37) Neutral (-0.23) Very Bearish (-0.67)

Have a terrific weekend.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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