Nick Leeson of Bizintra Asks is US-China Optimism Fading

Nick Leeson of Bizintra Asks is US-China Optimism Fading

“US-China optimism fading ? 

Asian markets are once again lower this morning as optimism over the trade deal continues to wane. Markets are off their lows in late trading but not sufficient enough to suggest that we are going to see anything other than a weak start to trading on the European exchanges.

In the United States, health care, technology and energy stocks led the selling with GOLD continuing to come under pressure as the dollar strengthened. Non farm payroll tomorrow will set the next course of direction.

The ECB rate decision later,today will, again be no surprise but look to the press conference afterwards for any indication of forward policy.
DAX futures are proving more resilient than DOW futures as the latter sells off more aggressively. Whilst we might drift for much of the day my preference is to short DAX on any bounce higher.

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Around Asia

Asian markets stuttered Thursday with no fresh news on the China-US trade front and as investors turn their attention to further signs of weakness in the global economy.

A worldwide growth forecast downgrade from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and weaker-than-expected private US jobs data helped send Wall Street lower and dragged on Asian sentiment.

And observers said a surge in the US trade deficit could also spur US President Donald Trump to ratchet up his protectionist agenda, even as he zeroes in on an agreement with China.

“Whether this hardens the president’s attitude (for a deal in) the China trade talks or he chooses a quick win is hard to say,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.

“But with an election to fight next year, you can almost hear the clanking as the White House swings its heavy artillery in the direction of the other perceived trading bloc culprits.”

Halley suggested the tycoon will turn his focus on Japan — with whom talks are ongoing — and the European Union.

“One thing is for sure, long after the US-China trade deal is put to bed, we will not have heard the last of the word tariff in 2019,” he added.

Shanghai rose 0.1 percent, extending a bright start to the year that has seen the composite index jump about a quarter. Tokyo ended 0.7 percent lower while Hong Kong dipped 0.6 percent in the afternoon.

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Nick Leeson left school at the age of 18 and started work right in the heart of the City of London with Coutts and Company at 15 Lombard Street. Coutts were bankers to the Royal family as well as a host of other well known and financially successful clients. Shortly after Nick started work in the City, the banking world in the United Kingdom went through its biggest period of change ever with the start of the Big Bang era, a process of de-regulation of Financial Institutions. Awash with opportunity, as the City was in those days, Nick joined Morgan Stanley International, a premier America Investment Bank. Nick started to specialise in Japanese futures and options at this point, a particularly niche area at this time and was headhunted to Baring Securities to fulfil a similar role there. Travelling extensively throughout his time with Barings, notably Indonesia, Japan and Hong Kong, Nick settled in Singapore to activate the Banks seat on the Singapore International Monetary Exchange. His story from the trading floors of Singapore to the collapse is well chronicled but his experiences of that time prove invaluable in developing a day trading strategy that leaves no overnight positions. Nick Leeson's expertise is in looking for entry and exit points around changes in direction, a strategy based on a mixture of sentiment and technical analysis.

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