New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) will be primarily driven by the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate report
The New Zealand Dollar was dragged lower by the severe sell-off in the Australian Dollar. A similar miss in New Zealand inflation data released earlier in April drove the chances of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut in May to 50 percent. After the release of the Australia CPI data, the odds moved to a 66 percent chance.
Late in the week, the New Zealand Dollar clawed back some of its earlier weekly losses after Statistics New Zealand reported that the trade balance logged a surplus of NZ$922 million in March, which was far above the median forecast of NZ$131 million. The trade balance showed a deficit of NZ$68 million the month before. Exports also climbed to NZ$5.7 billion in March. This was the highest level on record.
However, the news wasn’t all rosy. The quarterly figure was dismal. The trade balance showed a deficit of NZ$1.0 billion in the March quarter even as exports rose 2.0%, while imports fell 2.5%.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.67.
The projected lower bound is: 0.66.
The projected closing price is: 0.66.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.8801. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.001 at 0.665. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 0% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.666 0.666 0.664 0.665 81
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.67
Volatility: 9 9 10
Volume: 32,203 41,871 48,302
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.
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