New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) weighed down early in the session by steep falls in Asian stocks

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) weighed down early in the session by steep falls in Asian stocks

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) weighed down early in the session by steep falls in Asian stocks

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars rebounded after early session weakness on Monday to close higher for the session. The rally was fueled by another steep drop in U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to its lowest level since 2017, making the U.S. Dollar a less-desirable investment. The plunge in yields was fueled by investors who continue to worry about global growth and a potential deceleration in the U.S. economy.

On Monday, the AUD/USD settled at .7113, up 0.0032 or +0.45% and the NZD/USD closed at .6909, up 0.0034 or +0.49%.

Both the Aussie and the Kiwi were weighed down early in the session by steep falls in Asian stocks, but they were able to recover late in the session, helped by a modest reduction in market volatility, modest gains in some commodity markets and another steep fall in U.S. bond yields.

Increased demand for riskier assets is helping to underpin the Aussie and Kiwi, but higher Treasury yields may be putting a lid on prices.

Earlier in the session, New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$914 million in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday – marking the largest deficit on record for a January month.

That number was shy of expectations for a shortfall of NZ$300 million following the NZ$264 million surplus in December.

Exports added an annual 3.0 percent or NZ$128 million to NZ$4.40 billion, missing expectations for NZ$4.80 billion and down sharply from NZ$5.48 billion in the previous month.

Imports were up 7.7 percent on year or NZ$379 million to NZ$5.32 billion versus forecasts for NZ$5.00 billion and up from NZ$5.22 billion a month earlier.

For the year ended January 2019, annual goods imports were NZ$63.8 billion, while annual goods exports were NZ$57.4 billion and the annual trade balance was a deficit of NZ$6.358 billion.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.0002. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 91 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 135.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.001 at 0.692. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.691 0.692 0.689 0.692 43,793

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.68 0.67
Volatility: 5 10 10
Volume: 42,978 44,369 49,754

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 2.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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