New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) traders are also paying close attention to global bond yields and investor demand for riskier currencies

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) traders are also paying close attention to global bond yields and investor demand for riskier currencies

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) traders are also paying close attention to global bond yields and investor demand for riskier currencies

The New Zealand Dollar is trading flat early Wednesday with prices continuing to flatline around the mid-point of the August 7 wide-range trading session. That was the day that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised traders with a 50-basis point rate cut rather than the widely expected 25-basis point reduction. The price action suggests traders are still trying to digest the move in the wake of escalating concerns over a global economic slowdown due to the trade war between the United States and China.

Kiwi traders are also paying close attention to global bond yields and investor demand for riskier currencies. The currency could rally if yields begin to rise. This could lead to greater demand for higher-yielding currencies also.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6378 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through .6791. This is highly unlikely, however. Buyers still have to take out three retracement levels and a minor top to start generating enough upside momentum to reach the main top at .6791.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6588 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .6588 to .6378. Its 50% level or pivot at .6483 is controlling the short-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .6791 to .6378. Its retracement zone at .6585 to .6633 is the next potential upside target and resistance.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.66.

The projected upper bound is: 0.65.

The projected lower bound is: 0.63.

The projected closing price is: 0.64.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.7433. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.72. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.000 at 0.643. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 92% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.643 0.644 0.643 0.643 247
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.65 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 8 9 9
Volume: 36,017 35,430 41,771

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 4.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that NZD= is currently in an oversold condition.

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