New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Trade Deficit Drops, Beats Forecast
New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to NZ$1.24 billion in September, dropping sharply from the deficit of NZ$1.56 billion in August. This beat the estimate of NZ$1.37 billion. The improvement was credited to stronger sales of meat and milk, both of which are key export products.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD broke above resistance at 0.6360 last week and the upward trend continued (slowly) all the way until Tuesday, when the pair tested resistance at 0.6420. However, the pair has retraced and is currently trading at 64.00. Still, the line at 0.6420 is fluid, and I would not be surprised to see the pair regroup and push above this level.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.65.
The projected lower bound is: 0.63.
The projected closing price is: 0.64.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.3231. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 119.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed unchanged at 0.642. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 7% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.642 0.642 0.641 0.642 435
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.64 0.63 0.66
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 27,876 30,943 37,240
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.