New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) to strengthen further
We have held the same view since last Tuesday (12 Mar, spot at 0.6835) wherein we expected NZD to trade sideways within a 0.6750/0.6885 range. Over the past couple of days, we warned that “the prospect for a break of 0.6885 first appears to be higher but in view of the lackluster momentum, any gain is expected to struggle to move beyond the solid resistance zone of 0.6805/20”. Instead of ‘struggling’, NZD blast past the 0.6805/20 zone and soared to an overnight high of 0.6828. From here, we expect NZD to move above the 0.6942 top seen in early-Feb.
A break above 0.6942 would shift the focus to 0.6970, the high in December last year. The high in December is a significant mid to long-term resistance and a break of this level would suggest NZD could advance further in the months ahead. We would revise our current ‘positive’ view on NZD if there were a break of the ‘key support’ at 0.6845.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.70.
The projected lower bound is: 0.68.
The projected closing price is: 0.69.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.6611. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 88 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 131.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.001 at 0.688. Volume was 8% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 36% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.688 0.694 0.686 0.688 50,435
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.67
Volatility: 6 10 10
Volume: 41,475 44,603 49,835
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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