New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) the theme has continued with a mix of “risk on” sentiment

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) the theme has continued with a mix of “risk on” sentiment

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) the theme has continued with a mix of “risk on” sentiment

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) received a boost Friday after broad based declines in the US Dollar (USD) took the kiwi off the low of 0.6744 to close at 0.6800. This week the theme has continued with a mix of “risk on” sentiment based on Brexit positiveness before tomorrow’s vote and big dollar sellers. Fed chairman Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to change interest rates again and will watch how the slowing economy progresses. Brexit headlines will hold market focus over the remaining week, we suspect sentiment will change tomorrow and take the kiwi back below 0.6800.

The New Zealand Dollar followed the Australian Dollar lower in the early stages of last week bottoming out against the US Dollar at 0.6744 before things changed. US (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll jobs data showed only a further 20,000 people were added to the workforce – the figure significantly down on the expected 180,000 number.

Unemployment came in better than expected at 3.8% from 3.9% but the US Dollar traded softer allowing the kiwi to regain early week losses. Global Auction Milk prices have again posted another positive result of 3.3%, this is the seventh increase in prices since November 20th with farmgate prices set to improve over time. Another quiets week for data for the local currency suggesting outside influences will impact for the second week running.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.8056. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 81 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.002 at 0.685. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.683 0.685 0.683 0.685 18,897

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.67
Volatility: 8 10 10
Volume: 41,344 45,565 50,047

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 1.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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