New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) target 0.5989

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) target 0.5989

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) target 0.5989

From the daily chart, we notice since Sep 6 NZD/USD has failed in multiple occasions nearby the high end of current trading zone 0.6236 – 0.6438. The price changed direction eyeing a test of the low end.

Hence, a close below the low end of the zone could send NZDUSD towards 0.6136. Further close below this level may see the pair trading even lower towards 0.5989. Nonetheless, the weekly support levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in) should be considered.

On the flip-side, any failure to close below the low end of the zone could reverse the pair’s course sending it towards the high end of the zone. Further close above the high end could send NZDUSD towards the vicinity of 0.6555-65. That said, buyers need to keep an eye on the weekly resistance area and level marked on the chart.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.64.

The projected lower bound is: 0.62.

The projected closing price is: 0.63.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.6112. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -112.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed down -0.000 at 0.630. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.630 0.631 0.630 0.630 427
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.64 0.65 0.67
Volatility: 5 8 9
Volume: 23,292 32,119 38,671

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 5.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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