New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) statement from the RBNZ was rather more upbeat than the markets were expecting
Nearly two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1%, but said there is still scope for further stimulus if necessary. The RBNZ said that new information it had received since the last Monetary Policy Statement by the bank in August “did not warrant a significant change to the monetary policy outlook”.
The statement from the RBNZ was rather more upbeat than the markets were expecting and the odds on a November rate cut were reduced.
Since then, however, economists have said that a lower OCR remains in the cards. Furthermore, the recent sell-off in the New Zealand Dollar suggests traders are pricing in a 25 basis point cut next month.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.
The projected upper bound is: 0.64.
The projected lower bound is: 0.62.
The projected closing price is: 0.63.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.1799. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed unchanged at 0.629. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.630 0.630 0.628 0.629 163
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.63 0.64 0.66
Volatility: 8 8 9
Volume: 31,951 32,826 38,382
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 5.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.