New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) sellers struggling to breach 6-month trend line support

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) sellers struggling to breach 6-month trend line support

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) sellers struggling to breach 6-month trend line support

The New Zealand Dollar has not made much progress since last week’s dramatic drop against its US namesake. Sellers have attempted to force a breakdown, but a lasting breach of rising trend support guiding the Kiwi higher since early October 2018 lows has been elusive.

Breaking this barrier – now at 0.6760 – sets the stage for an almost immediate challenge of the 0.6686-0.6721 chart inflection area. A further daily close below that may be necessary to both confirm reversal and make for actionable risk/reward parameters for sellers.

In the event of a bounce, the would-be Triple Top in the 0.6939-69 marks pivotal resistance. A break above that – again confirmed on a daily closing basis – would neutralize near-term selling pressure open the door for a recovery beyond the 0.70 figure.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.66.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.6669. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 99 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -102.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.000 at 0.675. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.675 0.676 0.675 0.675 2,146

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.67
Volatility: 11 10 11
Volume: 43,207 43,744 49,455

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 0.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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