New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) report showing much-better-than-expected September quarter retail sales data

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) report showing much-better-than-expected September quarter retail sales data

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) report showing much-better-than-expected September quarter retail sales data

The New Zealand Dollar is getting a boost on Tuesday following a report showing much-better-than-expected September quarter retail sales data. Figures released earlier today showed seasonally adjusted retail sales volumes rose 1.6 percent in the three months ended September 30, more than the 0.5 percent increase economists had generally expected.

The number was also up from the 0.2 percent pace of growth in the June quarter. Values were up 1.4 percent as some retailers still struggled to pass on rising costs to consumers.

Volume remains low with many of the major banks already moving to the sidelines ahead of the U.S. bank holiday on Thursday.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6437 will change the main trend to up. This will make .6395 a new main bottom.

The short-term range is .6466 to .6322. Its retracement zone at .6411 to .6394 is support. Trading on the strong side of this retracement zone is also helping to give the Forex pair a slight upside bias.

The main range is .6204 to .6466. Its retracement zone at .6335 to .6304 is major support. It stopped the selling on November 8 at .6322.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.

The projected upper bound is: 0.65.

The projected lower bound is: 0.63.

The projected closing price is: 0.64.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.0250. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 46 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.001 at 0.643. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.642 0.643 0.640 0.643 27,898
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.64 0.63 0.66
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 26,232 30,663 35,575

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 1.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods.

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