Home FX New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) rapidly approaching a four-year low

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) rapidly approaching a four-year low

New Zealand currency held fanned out in someones hand

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) rapidly approaching a four-year low

The New Zealand Dollar is rapidly approaching a four-year low against the U.S. Dollar on Monday after data showed that business confidence in the country was deteriorating quickly amid a global economic slowdown, despite an aggressive rate cut by the central bank designed to prop up growth.

Earlier today, a survey by the bank ANZ showed that business confidence in New Zealand in September fell to its lowest level since April 2008, with 54 percent of respondents saying they expect business conditions to deteriorate in the next year.

RBNZ Sees Need to Improve Resilience of Financial System

On Monday, the RBNZ said in its 2018/19 annual report that New Zealand’s financial system is equipped to manage current risks but there is a need to improve resilience.

“Vulnerabilities remain,” the RBNZ said. “Debt levels are high, with lending and debt concentrated in housing and agriculture.”

“We need to improve the resilience of New Zealand’s financial system while conditions remain favorable, and we have been consulting on proposals to raise bank capital requirements.”

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.

The projected upper bound is: 0.63.

The projected lower bound is: 0.62.

The projected closing price is: 0.63.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 36.7002. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed down -0.003 at 0.626. Volume was 10% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.629 0.630 0.625 0.626 31,241
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.63 0.64 0.66
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 31,156 32,602 38,385

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX NZD= is currently 5.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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