New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) pushing higher
There is a risk-on feel in the air in Asian trade today and the Aussie and Kiwi are both pushing higher.
Overnight, there was certainly optimism around as US President Trump suggested that he expected to sign a significant part of the trade deal with China ahead of schedule. That lead the SPX to push higher as we start looking at a test of record-high levels.
There is also a growing focus as we head towards the FOMC meeting this week, that the experts are saying will lead to another rate cut. All that has helped see both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD catch a bit of a bid in early trade.
However, so far it has been the Kiwi that is outperforming to the upside. Currently, it’s up 0.18% and creeping higher.
There have been a few headlines doing the rounds early, with the suggestion that a major super fund in NZ is going to ease off on buying offshore currencies, meaning that there will be fewer outflows from a huge institution. This would likely see the Kiwi appreciate.
Other than that there is simply a bit more optimism around.
Looking at the key levels today, we can see that the NZD/USD has bounced off the 0.6350 after dipping as low as 0.6340.
I think a natural target for this bounce could be the 0.6400 level or just under. We can see that price made a pretty clean double top with a lower high above that point. That was a technical catalyst for a push lower.
We did have a semi round-number level at 0.6350 and that has so far held up, but I think if the positive sentiment remains then we could push a little higher again. Particularly given the Kiwi and the implications on more positive news on the US-China talks.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.64.
The projected lower bound is: 0.63.
The projected closing price is: 0.64.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 12.9371. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed up 0.001 at 0.635. Volume was 17% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.635 0.637 0.634 0.635 27,567
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.64 0.63 0.66
Volatility: 8 8 9
Volume: 28,959 31,559 37,109
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.