New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) pullback higher looks exhausted

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) pullback higher looks exhausted

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) pullback higher looks exhausted

NZD/USD has been on a bearish trend for more than a month since it reversed at the middle of July. The trend was pretty strong in the first couple of weeks and the smaller period MAs such as the 20 SMA (grey) and the 50 SMA (yellow) were providing resistance on the H1 chart and pushing this pair lower.

The trend slowed in August and the larger moving averages caught up, so they turned into resistance for this pair during this month. The 100 SMA (green) and the 50 SMA are providing resistance today and the pressure remains on the downside, so we still keep a bearish bias for this pair.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.66.

The projected upper bound is: 0.65.

The projected lower bound is: 0.63.

The projected closing price is: 0.64.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.8084. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.001 at 0.644. Volume was 3% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 91% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.643 0.646 0.642 0.644 34,938
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.65 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 8 9 9
Volume: 39,486 36,124 41,945

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 4.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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