New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) positive trade outcome between the US and China would be good for the Kiwi currency
The NZD/USD rate reached a low 0.6770 on Friday 22 February, however has since recovered to 0.6840. The whip-saw movements of both currencies in the end turning out to be a bit of a storm in a tea-cup, as the Kiwi returns to a level at the end of the week very similar to where it started. The previous 0.6750 to 0.6950 trading range for the NZD/USD rate continues to hold firm with the daily ranges closing-in on the mid-point of 0.6850.
It is difficult to see what the local negative factor could be to push the Kiwi below the 0.6750 support area in the short to medium term.
The next major economic release is the December 2018 quarter’s GDP growth number on 21st March.
Retail sales figures for the December quarter on Monday 25 February could prove to be an important lead-indicator for the overall growth numbers. Both retail and GDP were flat in the September 2018 quarter and whilst it was not a boomer Christmas sales period for retailers, on-line sales appear to have been strong. A quarter on quarter Retail Sales increase above 1.0% will be positive for a GDP lift above the RBNZ’s forecast of +0.8% later next month. Such an outcome would be positive for the Kiwi dollar on its own accord.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.69.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 45.9017. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 70 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.001 at 0.683. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.684 0.684 0.682 0.683 882
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.67
Volatility: 10 11 11
Volume: 39,900 44,096 50,707
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 1.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.
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