New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) plunged on a combination of weak domestic data and a somewhat hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) plunged on a combination of weak domestic data and a somewhat hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) plunged on a combination of weak domestic data and a somewhat hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve

The New Zealand Dollar plunged on Wednesday on a combination of weak domestic data and a somewhat hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve. A survey of New Zealand business confidence came in lower than expected, increasing the chances of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank on August 6. This was followed later in the day by a widely expected 25-basis point rate cut by the Fed, and surprisingly less-dovish comments than expected by Chairman Jerome Powell.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.67.

The projected lower bound is: 0.65.

The projected closing price is: 0.66.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.7371. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 35.52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 50 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -146.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed unchanged at 0.656. Volume was 11% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.656 0.658 0.653 0.656 40,345

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.67 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 6 9 10
Volume: 31,597 36,165 42,572

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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