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New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) next upside target is the April 30 main top at .6686


New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) next upside target is the April 30 main top at .6686

The New Zealand Dollar finished higher on Friday as a weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report helped raise the chances of a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. As the odds of the rate cut increased, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged, making the U.S. Dollar a less-attractive asset.

On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for May rose just 75,000, versus an estimate of 180,000. This was the second time in four months that payrolls increased by less than 100,000 as the labor market continues to show signs of reaching maximum employment and weaker-month-over-month gains.

The news also drove market expectations for a rate cut in June to 27.5% from 16.7%, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool. The chance of lower Fed rates by July is now 79%.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The next upside target is the April 30 main top at .6686. Taking out this level will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .6495. This is highly unlikely over the short-run. However, due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time from the .6481 main bottom, the NZD/USD will begin Monday’s session inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The main range is .6939 to .6481. Its retracement zone at .6710 to .6764 is the primary upside target. Even though the trend is up, aggressive counter-trend sellers could come in on the first test of this zone. It is controlling the near-term term direction of the Forex pair. Some longs could decide to book profits on a test of this zone. New short-sellers may try to form a secondary lower top.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.67.

The projected lower bound is: 0.66.

The projected closing price is: 0.67.


A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.2002. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 150.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.004 at 0.666. Volume was 3% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 10% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.662 0.668 0.661 0.666 38,811

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.66 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 7 8 10
Volume: 40,057 37,021 45,798

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX NZD= is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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