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New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Momentum Shift May Lead to Test of .6671 – .6692


New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Momentum Shift May Lead to Test of .6671 – .6692

The New Zealand Dollar is strengthening against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, following through on the move from the previous session that reversed earlier losses. The currency is likely being supported by hopes the U.S.-China trade deal, signed on Wednesday, could herald warmer relations between the world’s biggest economies and help to revive global growth.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since December 31. A trade through .6554 will change the main trend to down.

A move through .6758 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This is highly unlikely on Thursday, but the closing price reversal bottom on January 15 and its subsequent confirmation earlier today, may have signaled the start of a minimum 2 to 3 day rally or a 50% to 61.8% retracement of the break from .6758 to .6584.

The major support is a long-term retracement zone at .6567 to .6497.

The intermediate range is .6554 to .6758. Its retracement zone comes in at .6632 to .6656. The lower level of this zone is currently being tested.

The short-term range is .6758 to .6584. Its retracement zone at .6671 to .6692 is another potential upside target. Trader reaction to this zone could determine the near-term direction of the NZD/USD.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6628, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate Fibonacci level at .6632.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6632 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the intermediate 50% level at .6656.

Overcoming .6656 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a further rally into the short-term retracement zone at .6671 to .6692.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.67.

The projected lower bound is: 0.66.

The projected closing price is: 0.66.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 44.6351. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.002 at 0.664. Volume was 2% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.662 0.666 0.661 0.664 29,790
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.66 0.65 0.65
Volatility: 6 7 8
Volume: 32,168 26,989 32,366

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX NZD= is currently 1.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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