New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Minor Pivot at .6302 Controlling Price Action

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Minor Pivot at .6302 Controlling Price Action

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Minor Pivot at .6302 Controlling Price Action

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6296, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at .6302.

The New Zealand Dollar posted a second consecutive inside move on Friday while posting a slight gain for the session. The price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. After surprising traders with a half-percent rate cut in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged earlier in the week

The indecision from traders on Thursday and Friday was likely fueled by the two trains of thought currently controlling the price action. Supporting the NZD/USD was Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, who said a rate cut in November “wasn’t a dead certainty”. Capping the Kiwi were a slew of bank analysts who are forecasting a 25-basis point cut in November that would take the OCR to 0.75 percent.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.

The projected upper bound is: 0.64.

The projected lower bound is: 0.62.

The projected closing price is: 0.63.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.3569. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed down -0.001 at 0.628. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.629 0.630 0.628 0.628 199
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.63 0.64 0.66
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 28,052 31,981 38,230

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 5.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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