New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) may reverse gains after rosy NZ CPI data
The New Zealand Dollar rose in morning Wednesday trade after a round of rosy local inflation data crossed the wires. In the third quarter, New Zealand CPI clocked in at 1.5 percent y/y versus 1.4% expected, though down from 1.7 in Q2. That was also the softest pace since Q1 2018. Quarter-over-quarter, inflation accelerated 0.7% versus 0.6% anticipated and prior.
New Zealand front-end government bond yields climbed, signaling fading dovish RBNZ expectations. Though that wasn’t enough to significantly dent November rate cut bets. According to overnight index swaps, odds that the central bank could deliver a 25bp cut next month stand at about 93 percent probability. It will likely take more welcoming news, especially on the external front, to push those down further.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.64.
The projected lower bound is: 0.62.
The projected closing price is: 0.63.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.8136. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.000 at 0.629. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.629 0.629 0.628 0.629 31
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.63 0.63 0.66
Volatility: 6 7 9
Volume: 30,554 31,393 37,735
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 4.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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