New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Manufacturing Reports in Spotlight
The new trading week kicked off on a sour note, has manufacturing sales slipped 0.7% in the second quarter. This marks a second decline in the past three months, as the US-China trade war continues to take a toll on New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. On Thursday, we’ll get a look at the NZ Business Manufacturing Index. The indicator dropped to 48.2 in July, its first contraction since 2012. Another decline could raise concerns about the health of the manufacturing sector.
The New Zealand economy is very dependent on commodity exports, so fluctuations in commodity prices can have a significant impact on the movement of NZD/USD. The ANZ Commodity Price Index posted a modest gain of 0.3% in August, after recording two straight declines.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.65.
The projected upper bound is: 0.65.
The projected lower bound is: 0.63.
The projected closing price is: 0.64.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.5519. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 126.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed unchanged at 0.642. Volume was 39% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.643 0.644 0.641 0.642 21,780
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.64 0.65 0.67
Volatility: 8 8 9
Volume: 31,962 34,252 40,044
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 3.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.
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